Kenya has observed a steady increase in Burundian refugees and migrants in recent years, with UNHCR data indicating around 16,000-20,000 individuals by late 2025. This influx, while not the largest (Somalia leads), stands out due to Burundi's proximity and shared border dynamics, straining camps like Dadaab and urban areas in Nairobi.
Burundi's Ongoing Political Instability
Burundi's crises since 2015—sparked by President Pierre Nkurunziza's controversial third term—continue driving displacement, with renewed violence in 2025 exacerbating flows. Opposition crackdowns, ethnic tensions between Hutu and Tutsi groups, and extrajudicial killings force thousands across borders annually; UNHCR notes new arrivals from Burundi alongside South Sudan and DRC. Elections in 2025 likely intensified repression, pushing youth and families toward Kenya over longer routes to Tanzania.
Economic Collapse and Poverty
Burundi ranks among Africa's poorest nations, with GDP per capita under $200 amid hyperinflation, crop failures, and sanctions. Hyperinflation hit 40% in 2025, eroding purchasing power; youth unemployment exceeds 60%, compelling migration for remittances. Kenya's relatively stable economy—bolstered by Nairobi's job markets in informal trade and services—attracts Burundians seeking low-skill work like hawking or domestic labor.
Geographical Proximity and Porous Borders
Sharing a 236km border via Lake Tanganyika and land routes, Burundi offers easy overland access to Kenya via Rwanda or Tanzania, unlike distant origins like Somalia. Smugglers exploit ungoverned spaces, enabling undocumented entries; UNHCR reports monthly increases of dozens from Burundi in Dadaab. Kenya's encampment policy funnels them to Kakuma/Kalobeyei, but urban self-settlement in Eastleigh rises.
Regional Conflicts and Spillover
Eastern DRC violence and regional insurgencies (e.g., RED-Tabara rebels) displace Burundians internally before cross-border flight. Kenya's neutral stance and UNHCR presence make it safer than Tanzania's deportations; 2025 saw 1,802 net gains including Burundians. Climate shocks—droughts worsening food insecurity—compound this, with 254,000 Burundians regionally displaced by late 2025.
| Factor | Impact on Influx | 2025 Stats |
|---|---|---|
| Political Violence | Primary driver | ~2,000 new arrivals |
| Economic Hardship | Secondary push | Youth-led migration |
| Proximity | Facilitator | Dadaab: +1,802 total |
| Regional Instability | Amplifier | 16k-20k in Kenya |
Strain on Kenyan Resources
Kenya hosts 860,297 refugees total as of August 2025, up from 796,331 in 2024, with Dadaab at 432,480. Burundians, though 2-3% of this, contribute to overcrowding; services like water and health stretch thin, prompting government calls for repatriation. Yet, voluntary returns remain low (931 assisted in 2025).
Integration Challenges and Opportunities
Many integrate into Nairobi's informal economy, speaking Kirundi/Swahili, but face xenophobia and exploitation. UNHCR's PRIMES/BIMS aids identity verification, reducing fraud. For Kenya's content creators covering ICT/services, this highlights demand for refugee-focused digital inclusion projects.
Government and International Response
Kenya's 2025 Shirley Clements plan aims at gradual repatriation, but inflows persist amid stalled Burundi peace talks. UNHCR pushes resettlement (1,087 departed by May 2025), yet backlogs grow. Donors fund camps, but urban refugees evade tracking.
Burundi's mix of violence, poverty, and accessibility creates sustained pressure on Kenya, with numbers rising steadily into 2026—projected to exceed 20,000 without resolution
