Registered refugees and asylum-seekers stood at about 490,000 at the end of 2019. By August 2026 the figure was 871,568, an increase of roughly 382,000 people, or 78 percent. Most of that growth came in a short window between late 2023 and early 2025, and the pattern since then has been a slower climb with one sharp dip.
Note on the data: UNHCR and the Department of Refugee Services publish monthly totals, but I couldn't find reliable year-end figures for 2016 to 2018 or for 2022 in the material available. The series below therefore starts at the end of 2019, with the gaps flagged.
The overall trend
| Date | Refugees and asylum-seekers | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2019 | 489,747 | Sum of Dadaab, Kakuma/Kalobeyei and urban figures |
| Oct 2020 | 501,049 | First time the count passed 500,000 in this series |
| 31 Dec 2021 | over 540,000 | Reported as "over 540,000" |
| 31 Dec 2023 | 691,868 | |
| 31 Dec 2024 | 823,932 | +132,064 (+19.1%) on 2023 |
| 31 Dec 2025 | 835,793 | +11,861 (+1.4%) on 2024 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | 871,568 | +35,775 (+4.3%) since December 2025 |
Between the end of 2019 and October 2020 the count barely moved, which fits the COVID-19 period when borders were restricted. It then grew steadily to more than 540,000 by the end of 2021. The count added roughly another 150,000 people over the following two years, and 2024 brought the biggest single-year jump, at over 132,000.
The 2024 surge
The steepest part of the curve is the first quarter of 2024:
| Date | Total |
|---|---|
| Dec 2023 | 691,868 |
| Jan 2024 | 714,137 |
| Feb 2024 | 744,747 |
| Mar 2024 | 767,294 |
| Jul 2024 | 782,468 |
| Dec 2024 | 823,932 |
In three months the count rose by 75,426 people, about 11 percent. UNHCR's monthly reports tie the growth to the resumption of registration in Dadaab, along with new arrivals from South Sudan, Burundi, the DRC, Somalia and Ethiopia. Registration in Dadaab had been suspended since late 2015, so a large part of what looks like a jump is people who were already there being formally counted. In March 2024 alone, 21,852 people were registered in the camps.
2025 and 2026
| Date | Total | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2025 | 836,907 | |
| Apr 2025 | 849,625 | |
| May 2025 | 853,074 | |
| Nov 2025 | 872,109 | Peak of the period |
| Dec 2025 | 835,793 | Drop of 36,316 in one month |
| Apr 2026 | 847,780 | |
| Aug 2026 | 871,568 | Almost back to the November 2025 level |
The December 2025 dip is the biggest monthly fall in the recent data. The report I found doesn't explain it. UNHCR's monthly reports do include a line for closures and inactivations, which covers spontaneous departures, deaths and data errors found during continuous registration, so record clean-ups of this kind are part of how the count moves. The number recovered to 871,568 by August 2026, nearly matching the November 2025 peak.
Refugees versus asylum-seekers
| Date | Refugees | Asylum-seekers | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2024 | 546,196 | 167,941 | 714,137 |
| Dec 2024 | 604,269 | 219,663 | 823,932 |
| Dec 2025 | 617,134 | 218,659 | 835,793 |
| Aug 2026 | 640,091 | 231,477 | 871,568 |
Since January 2024 the number of recognised refugees has grown by 93,895 (17.2 percent), while asylum-seekers have grown by 63,536 (37.8 percent). Asylum-seekers made up 24 percent of the total in early 2024 and about 27 percent in August 2026, so the queue for status decisions has been growing faster than the recognised population.
Where the growth has landed
The table below compares the three main locations at the end of 2019, the end of 2024 and April 2026.
| Location | Dec 2019 | Dec 2024 | Apr 2026 | Change 2019 to 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dadaab | 217,151 | 416,403 | 414,748 | +199,252 (+91.8%) |
| Kakuma and Kalobeyei | 193,684 | 298,053 | 314,888 | +104,369 (+53.9%) |
| Urban areas | 78,912 | 109,476 | 118,144 | +30,564 (+38.7%) |
| Total | 489,747 | 823,932 | 847,780 | +334,185 (+68.2%) |
Dadaab nearly doubled between 2019 and 2024, which is consistent with the registration backlog being cleared. Since the start of 2025 it has been roughly flat, while Kakuma, Kalobeyei and the urban caseload have kept growing. Dadaab held 44 percent of the total in 2019 and roughly 49 percent in 2026, so it has gained share overall.
Who they are: a stable mix
Despite the growth, the nationality mix has hardly changed. In October 2020, Somalis were about 54 percent of the total, South Sudanese 24.5 percent, Congolese 8.9 percent and Ethiopians 5.8 percent, with everyone else at 6.7 percent. By August 2026 the shares were:
| Country of origin | Share, Aug 2026 |
|---|---|
| Somalia | 55.3% |
| South Sudan | 24.5% |
| DR Congo | 7.7% |
| Ethiopia | 5.0% |
| All others | 7.6% |
That suggests growth has been spread across groups in roughly the same proportions rather than driven by one new crisis. The main change is that DR Congo and Ethiopia lost a little share, while smaller groups such as Burundians, Sudanese and Eritreans grew.
Why so little of the count goes out
The pathways that would reduce the number are small compared with the inflow:
- Voluntary return: 85,067 Somalis were assisted to return between 2014 and the end of 2019, but the pace has since dropped. Assisted returns were 1,501 in 2024 and 1,167 in 2025, and none had been recorded by April 2026.
- Resettlement to third countries: 4,049 people had departed by November 2024, and 1,660 by November 2025. By March 2026 the year-to-date figure was only 94.
Policy milestones
- 2016: The government announced plans to close Dadaab, after years in which the count had been falling through repatriations.
- April 2021: The government and UNHCR agreed a roadmap for the camps, with the government reiterating a target of closing Dadaab and Kakuma by 30 June 2022. That target was not met.
- February 2022: A new Refugee Act came into force, followed by the "Shirika" plan to move from camp management toward integrated settlements.
- 2023: Five consecutive below-average rainy seasons pushed fresh displacement into Dadaab from Somalia.
- November 2025: Dadaab and Kakuma were officially reclassified as municipalities, ending their status as temporary camps.
